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Company claims predictive algorithms can show a vaccine's efficacy in a given region in under 2 minutes.
Decision Resources Group (DRG), the Massachusetts-based health analytics firm, has developed a predictive analytics tool that it says can show the market potential of a vaccine in any global market in under 2 minutes.
"The model was designed to be interactive so that users can very quickly size populations that are eligible for their products," Nishant Kumar, a senior epidemiologist at DRG, said in a statement.
The system, called the Vaccines Epidemiology Dashboard, applies its predictive algorithms to historical vaccine and population data to generate population forecasts, “for every type of vaccine and for every country in the world.” Users can set their hypothetical parameters based on target population by age and gender, market, target coverage, vaccine efficacy, and other market factors.
The software will allow drug developers to model their vaccines directly or base them on proxies of past vaccines. For a new malaria vaccine, the company says a model of yellow fever would be an appropriate proxy. Other past examples included in the platform include BCG, DTP, polio, hepatitis B, HPV, and more.
"If a company is developing a vaccine, they will want to know how many people are eligible, whether there are any similar vaccines, and if so, what is the current coverage. It's very quick to do, because the forms allow you to layer in all of that data," Kumar said.
The system will also allow developers to use proxies for countries, in case a selected region lacks historical vaccine data. "For example, when forecasting uptake for a new vaccine in Germany using an existing vaccine as an analog, the algorithm will more likely use historical uptake data for the analog vaccine from the Netherlands or Denmark than it would from Saudi Arabia or Nigeria if data were missing," DRG's Director of Epidemiology, Michael Hughes, told Healthcare Analytics News™ in an email.
He added that the algorithm uses a similarity metric based on parameters such as geographical proximity, healthcare spend, and GDP per capita.
The Vaccines Epidemiology Dashboard delivers graphical and tabulated information predicting uptake through the year 2040, displaying potential market size through curves for selected, vaccinated, and immune populations.